Left-wing House representatives may be setting themselves up to be an influential bloc in a potential Democratic House majority, thanks to a recent streak of primary victories, marked by progressives gaining momentum in other primaries around the country.
In 2018, a Democratic blue wave brought with it four left-wing progressive members of the House: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., and Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-Mass., which would come to be known collectively as “the Squad.” Nonetheless, with Democrats starting Congress that year with a 235-seat majority, the group maintained limited influence in the House.
Now, however, it looks like these Democratic House representatives of this persuasion might be lining up to wield significantly more power in the House, owing first and foremost to increasing numbers. Following recent primary wins for progressives in New York and Colorado, it’s becoming clear that the leftmost bloc of Democrats in Congress will see their ranks balloon in the next Congress.
Calculating the size of this bloc depends on how it’s counted, and for this, endorsements from the Justice Democrats, a group that helped elect the original Squad members in 2018, serve as a useful proxy. Currently, there are nine members of the House who were endorsed by the group in the 2024 election. Rep. Adelita Grijalva, D-Ariz., also won the seat previously held by her late father, former Rep. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., who won his election in 2024 with the group’s endorsements.
Just counting Justice Democrats’ endorsees, there are nine primary winners already in 2026 who are likely to win their general elections, including the three recent democratic socialists: Melat Kiros, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez. This would bring this bloc of progressive Democrats running in safe Democratic districts to 18, which represents the likely floor for this potential group in Congress.
There are still more primaries over the next few months, which could net as many as three more primary wins for the group’s endorsees, though not all of those seats would set the candidate up for a glide path to Congress.
Also, some progressive candidates with similar politics to these candidates have won their primaries without backing from the group, like Rep. Analilia Mejia, D-N.J, former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, and Randy Villegas, the Democratic nominee in California’s 22nd District. Altogether, it appears that the proverbial “Squad” might have between 18 and 24 members in Jan. 2027, depending on how elections play out and what coalitions members form.
There are still more primaries over the next few months, which could net as many as three more primary wins for the group’s endorsees.
The second part of this group’s power, however, will derive from the likelihood of a relatively slim Democratic majority in Congress. Given Republican gerrymandering and other late-in-the-game changes to election law by the Supreme Court, Democrats are probably looking at a smaller majority than they would have gained otherwise.
Currently, Logan Phillips, the founder of the election forecasting site RaceToTheWH, projects that Democrats will hold the majority 229 to 206 after the 2026 midterms. While expectations for the House may evolve as the November election draws nearer, only 218 votes are needed for a legislative majority in the House.
This means that even a conservative estimate of 18 Squad-style representatives in the next House would make the voting bloc a critical coalition for maintaining a legislative majority, giving them significant influence. Ocasio-Cortez referenced this arrangement in a recent interview with radio host Santita Jackson.
“You can’t tell them to get out and then, in a presidential cycle, tell them that they have an obligation to vote for you. We’re either a team or we’re not,” Ocasio-Cortez said. “And at the end of the day, we all need each other to our chagrin and to our disagreement and to our great inconvenience. All of us have to accept the reality that we need each other, whether we like it or not.”
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Phillips, in an interview with Salon, said he saw the rise of these progressives as part of a global phenomenon of voters supporting candidates promoting change, and crediting their electoral successes as to both their affirmative vision for the party as well as a sort of “thumbs down on the status quo.”
“You’re now seeing this trend being carried over to primaries. Historically, people don’t like either party, but they love their congressman, and that’s starting to change. I think they don’t like their congressmen as much in some places,” Phillips said.
Phillips pointed to Gov. Roy Cooper, D-N.C., a moderate running for Senate in North Carolina, as an example of a successful moderate dominating the polls in their state’s primary. Similarly, he pointed to Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton’s candidacy in Massachusetts as an example of where more conservative Democrats may benefit from a desire to depart from the status quo, with the state’s incumbent Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., being one of the more liberal members of the Senate.
The other big question regarding this incoming group of progressives is what they will do with their newfound influence in the House. Miles Coleman, the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, compared the current situation with the post-Tea Party elections for Republicans during the Obama administration.
“One of the longer-term consequences of that was basically the formation of the House Freedom Caucus. Most of these DSA types are in very safe seats, so they’re going to get elected. Do they join the Congressional Progressive Caucus? I’m sure they do, but do they also make their own offshoot or something?” Coleman said.
Coleman said that the most obvious way they could throw their weight around is by either attempting to deny Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., the speakership or by extracting concessions in exchange for supporting his speakership, which would be a situation similar to what former Rep. Kevin McCarthy faced following the 2022 midterms. However, while some of these left-wing Democrats have openly opposed Jeffries’ leadership, this isn’t a uniform position across the group.
Coleman also compared the situation with the Congress following the 1974 elections and the Watergate scandal, in which new Democratic members pushed for changes in how the caucus operated by ousting committee chairs and changing caucus rules. This included changes to the seniority system for House committee membership and some changes towards transparency.
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With that being said, the incoming class of progressives will be limited in the sort of legislation that they’re able to push for because, even in a best-case scenario where Democrats take the House and Senate, President Donald Trump will remain in the White House, shutting down any prospect of successfully passing the sort of tentpole legislation, like “Medicare for All,” that these candidates have run on.
In an interview with Salon, Usamah Andrabi, the communications director for the Justice Democrats, said that conversations about what this bloc should do with its newfound influence are still in the “early stages” but have included topics like what legislation to try and force Trump to veto and what investigations to prioritize.
“We should be pushing this party if we have a majority in both chambers of Congress; we should be organizing and pushing this party to pass things like Medicare for All, or raising taxes on billionaires, or ending corporate super PACs, and we can be a party that challenges Donald Trump to veto legislation that is overwhelmingly popular,” Andrabi said.
Andrabi added that part of the priority will be in pushing the progressive vision for the Democratic Party into the public eye, as well as fighting against Trump’s agenda, which, in his analysis, are two reasons for the success of progressives in this year’s election cycle.
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Hello, my name is Asma E Nur. I am a tech blogger.
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